Goals!
I have a friend who has decided to do the 70.3 with me in November, and naturally there is some friendly rivalry. He works as a PT, lives in a gym, and is probably about 30 watts stronger than me on the bike, even after all my training. He recently completed two 6-hour pedal prix races solo, and nearly managed to keep up with my entire team!
However, his swimming is lacklustre and his running is about to begin. So, I think I will lose a bunch of time to him in the bike leg, but hopefully make up more than that in the water. He (jokingly) talked about aiming at a 5 hour 70.3, and I had to do some maths to work out what that would look like.
I then gave up the maths, and instead looked at what would be a realistic finish time for myself. Here are my calculations.
Swimming: if I can keep up 2:30/100m (which is probable, especially in a wetsuit), I can do the swim in 50 minutes.
Ride: if I can average 35km/h (possible), then I will finish the ride in just under 2.6 hours. I allowed 2:40, which is close enough.
Run: my best half-marathon was in 1:54. If I can manage to sustain a sub-2hr pace (5:41/km) I should be able to finish in 2 hours, which is reasonable, given that I am a) fitter than when I did my last half-marathon, and b) going to have most of a 70.3 under my belt before that.
I have come up with a target time of 5 hours 30mins. I suspect that the time I might make up in the swim or the run will be lost in transition, so that's a reasonable estimate.
Now, here is where it gets interesting. I think Aaron will be able to do the swim in about an hour. He doesn't like swimming, doesn't train much, but is built like a dolphin, and so might theoretically be able to flipper his way to a decent time, especially given that his feet are about size 15. I plan to make 10 minutes on him.
Now, the ride. I estimate that he will be riding at 2km/h faster than me. Over the 10 minutes I plan to be on the bike before him, I will have covered 6km. At a difference of 2km/h, it will take him 3 hours to catch me. But, if the speed difference is greater, it will be less. If he can sustain (say) 39km/h, it would only take him 90 minutes to catch me, and that leaves 70 minutes for him to put distance into me.
I'm assuming that I will do the bike at an average of 35km/h. That will take me 2h34m to complete. I'm assuming he will average 38km/h, which will take him 2h22 to complete. I think he will pass me with 40 minutes of the bike leg to go, but will only put another km into me, and that I will finish the bike leg less than 4 minutes behind him.
That leaves the run. I am pretty sure I can do a sub 2 half, especially after another 2 months of training. I think he will be down to 6:30/km by the end of the run, but I'm absolutely certain he won't be able to run the whole thing. (He's only running sub 10km at the moment, so pushing through to a half-marathon in 8 weeks is going to be difficult under any circumstances!). I think I will catch him within the first 5 km, and will shuffle past him and beat him by 10 minutes at the end.
Now, having posted this, I'm absolutely certain that something will go wrong, I will eat my hat, and he will laugh all the way to the finish line.
I can't wait!
However, his swimming is lacklustre and his running is about to begin. So, I think I will lose a bunch of time to him in the bike leg, but hopefully make up more than that in the water. He (jokingly) talked about aiming at a 5 hour 70.3, and I had to do some maths to work out what that would look like.
I then gave up the maths, and instead looked at what would be a realistic finish time for myself. Here are my calculations.
Swimming: if I can keep up 2:30/100m (which is probable, especially in a wetsuit), I can do the swim in 50 minutes.
Ride: if I can average 35km/h (possible), then I will finish the ride in just under 2.6 hours. I allowed 2:40, which is close enough.
Run: my best half-marathon was in 1:54. If I can manage to sustain a sub-2hr pace (5:41/km) I should be able to finish in 2 hours, which is reasonable, given that I am a) fitter than when I did my last half-marathon, and b) going to have most of a 70.3 under my belt before that.
I have come up with a target time of 5 hours 30mins. I suspect that the time I might make up in the swim or the run will be lost in transition, so that's a reasonable estimate.
Now, here is where it gets interesting. I think Aaron will be able to do the swim in about an hour. He doesn't like swimming, doesn't train much, but is built like a dolphin, and so might theoretically be able to flipper his way to a decent time, especially given that his feet are about size 15. I plan to make 10 minutes on him.
Now, the ride. I estimate that he will be riding at 2km/h faster than me. Over the 10 minutes I plan to be on the bike before him, I will have covered 6km. At a difference of 2km/h, it will take him 3 hours to catch me. But, if the speed difference is greater, it will be less. If he can sustain (say) 39km/h, it would only take him 90 minutes to catch me, and that leaves 70 minutes for him to put distance into me.
I'm assuming that I will do the bike at an average of 35km/h. That will take me 2h34m to complete. I'm assuming he will average 38km/h, which will take him 2h22 to complete. I think he will pass me with 40 minutes of the bike leg to go, but will only put another km into me, and that I will finish the bike leg less than 4 minutes behind him.
That leaves the run. I am pretty sure I can do a sub 2 half, especially after another 2 months of training. I think he will be down to 6:30/km by the end of the run, but I'm absolutely certain he won't be able to run the whole thing. (He's only running sub 10km at the moment, so pushing through to a half-marathon in 8 weeks is going to be difficult under any circumstances!). I think I will catch him within the first 5 km, and will shuffle past him and beat him by 10 minutes at the end.
Now, having posted this, I'm absolutely certain that something will go wrong, I will eat my hat, and he will laugh all the way to the finish line.
I can't wait!
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